Anticipating and Leveraging the Future:Surfing the Sigmoid
Curve
Raman Kannan
Software Engineering Department
Monmouth University,
West Long Branch, NJ 07764, USA
kannan@moncol.monmouth.edu
http://www.monmouth.edu/monmouth/academic/dna
Abstract
In late 19th century --as the world economy (and power) shifted
from agricultural base to industrial base--nations that did not
anticipate these discontinuities were left behind. Falling behind
in global leadership is a spiral. Once begun the fall only accelerates.
But there is hope for those who missed the onset of industrial
age because it is not the last of radical changes to come. There
are several more to come. And that is in the future--where most
of us will spend the rest of our lives--. In this paper the author
presents a convincing argument to anticipate (discontinuities),
attack (with innovation), and plausible innovations.
Motivation
Just as we speak the world separated
by vast oceans has been reduced to a global digital village by
the onset of Information Revolution. While I am no authority to
discuss the right and wrong surrounding "Desert Storm-Iraq
War(1991)" I can declare --with certainty-- the victory of
digital bits (product of information age) over bullets (product
of the industrial age). Those who anticipated and leveraged the
power of --zeros and ones-- accomplished their mission. Those
who did not anticipate did not accomplish. Most importantly, just
as Japan leveraged the fruits of industrial revolution, so too
can any nation (society, group or an individual) anticipate the
implications of the looming information age and leverage the fruits
of the digital revolution. In other words history has no bearing.
There are no pre-requisites to leverage the benefits of discontinuities.
Any one can start afresh and reap the very best. Such is the power
of discontinuity in technology.
Section 1
In Section 1 we introduce key concepts technology limits, discontinuity,
sigmoid curves, paradigm shift, and a strategy to identify and
pioneer a paradigm shift.
Limits and Discontinuities
Numerous social scientists and philosophers have reasoned about
the discontinuities that we undergo. In "Attackers Advantage"
Richard Foster [2] explains that one must understand: (1) S-Curve;
(2) Discontinuities and Limits and (3) the importance of innovation.
There are limits to everything we do or make. When we are at the
limits the need for improvement still persists and a radically
different process or product is essential to rise above the limiting
factors. Thus a discontinuity occurs and revolutionary changes
are in order. Those who resist the change disappear and those
who champion (or those who embrace like Japan) the change reap
the benefits. As an illustration Foster [2] cites the demise of
NCR Mechanical Cash Registers to electronic cash registers in
1971 and the success of first synthetic laundry detergent by Procter
& Gamble (1947). We can add to this list such famous companies
like Cray (network computing vs. supercomputers), IBM (Workstation
vs. mainframe) and there are many more.
Limits, SIGMOID(S) Curves and Paradigm Shifts
Limits define the point of diminishing
return as well as the duration of maximal return for any technology,
process or product. And the S Curve is a is a powerful tool to
understand and visualize technology evolution and limits. Foster
[2] defines S Curve as "a graph of the relationship between
the effort put into improving a product or process and the results
one gets back for that investment" as shown in Figure 2.
If we plot the performance of a product through conception, production
and obsolescence the resulting curve will be the S Curve. S Curve
is sometimes referred to as the Sigmoid curve[3]. Just as a sigmoid
curve waxes and wanes so also does the performance of technologies,
processes and products. To be successful or to be competitive
or to break out of obscurity or even to achieve quantum improvements,
one must understand: (1) limits; (2) technology evolution (S-Curves);
and (3) the underlying forces, rules and regulations also known
as "paradigm". Paradigm is defined to be "the
most fundamental set of assumptions adopted by a professional
community that allows its members to share similar perceptions
and engage in commonly shared practices" [4]. Once we understand
these three factors it is then possible to escape from the forces
of the current paradigm and effect a paradigm shift. In other
words the birth of a new paradigm is accompanied by a whole new
set of rules, regulations and beliefs. Thus a paradigm shift fundamentally
alters our original way of thinking, as did quantum mechanics
which was enunciated to explain physical phenomena that Newtonian
mechanics could not.
Curvilinear Logic
Joel Arthur Barker [5] claims that our ability to discover the
future depends on our ability to: (1) understand the limitations
of current forces or "paradigms"; (2) anticipate future
needs; and (3) innovate to fulfill that need. By anticipating
future needs and the limiting factors of known technologies one
can pioneer revolutionary technologies and reap the benefits.
In the case of watch industry those who championed quartz watch
(Casio/Citizen) now dominate the world market. Swiss watch industry
who resisted the impending shift continued to improve upon the
mechanical watch beyond the point of diminishing return. Swiss
watch market share is now a paltry 5% of the world market share
down from 90%. Chrysler pioneered passenger vans and has a significant
larger market share over all other automobile manufactures in
the world (including Japanese companies). This process of venturing
into uncharted territories or starting afresh is what is known
as curvilinear logic [3].
Continuos Improvement - Kaizen
It is simply not enough to innovate once and do nothing more.
Lest, predictably one becomes a prisoner of their own "new"
paradigm they helped create. Barker [5] cites several revealing
and most unlikely prisoners of paradigm: (1) In 1880, Thomas Edison
is said to have remarked that the phonograph is not of any commercial
value; (2) "flight by machines heavier than air is impractical
and insignificant, if not utterly impossible." so claimed
a famous astronomer Simon Newcomb in 1902; and (3) "it is
an idle dream to imagine that .. automobiles will take the place
of railways for mass transit" -- American Road Congress (1913).
And there are countless more. Notice that most of these observers
were pioneers by any standard but inexplicably allowed themselves
to be prisoners of their own limited understanding. In other words
the effect of paradigm is powerful enough to paralyze even the
genius amongst us. So it is all too important to start life all
over again with a perpetual curiosity and never give room to complacency.
Furthermore, interestingly enough, the next paradigm (or the new
set of rules) appears while the current paradigm is still in the
"Maximum Return Phase" as shown in Figure 3. 
Chrysler Corporation, introduces incremental
but useful improvements and maintains a comfortable lead in the
minivan market. Improvements over Walkman (Sony Corporation) and
tire material (cotton, rayon, nylon and polyester) are other well
known examples. Incidentally "kaizen" is a Japanese
term for continuos/incremental improvement.
Strategy
Fundamental changes are usually brought about by outsiders who
are not restricted to the boundaries of an existing paradigm.
So anyone in interested in a better future must challenge the
present (or your current paradigm) on a regular basis. Barker
[5] calls this paradigm pliancy and in which you ask the paradigm
shift question:
"What do I believe is impossible to do in my field, but,
if it could be done, would fundamentally change my business?"
The next phase is to find the "outsiders" and
listen to their opinions "right" or "wrong".
Being flexible and open eventually pays off.
Section 2
We have experienced tremendous changes in the last 100 years.
Change begets change and hence the rate of change has accelerated
during this period. And it is fair to say that Science and Technology
has witnessed the most change. In this section we review some
of the most promising and imminent technologies that will fundamentally
change our lives.
Energy Generating Satellites [6]
Solar powered satellites will collect solar energy and power will
be delivered to earthlings below using sparse microwave beams
through which birds can fly unaffected. In other words side-effects
will be eliminated. Batteries need not be included if one can
regulate and deliver the satellite generated power to portable
devices with special antennas. Paradigm shift again and gone will
be the batteries and major industries associated with batteries.
Machines Like Us [7]
Using sophisticated techniques such as genetic programming, neural
networks, fuzzy logic and fractal programming, first generation
machines that can learn to walk from first principles and learn
to dance have been constructed. Another such system is being used
to predict and forecast stock prices.
Computer Human Interaction
Systems that interact with people and other systems using multiple
input modalities (vision, tactile and speech (multilingual) )
will become common. Here again limits of conventional technology
has brought about such revolutionary innovation. Imagine a keyboard
to support 5000 or more Chinese characters. Keyboard just does
not help. That is the limit.
Global Communication Infrastructures
Today we have numerous devices(phone, fax, email and other modes
of communication) and numerous identifiers (phone numbers, fax
numbers, email address, HTTP address). Within a few years anyone
can access or communicate with anyone else around the world using
one identifier in any of these modes. Computing device, networks,
television and telephones will merge. And do so without being
wired. The Motorola Iridium Project is aimed at connecting the
entire world using several geostationary satellites.
Digital Economy
Initially it was barter. Then it was gold bullion and now it is
paper currency. Inevitably paper currency will be replaced with
digital currencies.
Space Industry
Initial prototypes of extra-terrestrial colonies will be implemented.
New materials and machinery will be fabricated in space.
Interaction over Distance and Virtual Reality
Forward looking corporations (such as Bellcore) have already implemented
flexible work schedules leveraging their telecommuting technologies.
Distance Software Engineering will be common. Teleradiology is
in use today but will soon be generalized to telemedicine including
many other clinical services.
Distance Education
Students can enroll and attend any school any where in the world.
No longer would students have to migrate from one place to another
just to attend a place of learning. Anyone can visit any university
that bits and bytes can reach. The International University College
in Englewood, Colorado and Western Government University on the
Internet are here to stay. The world can tap into the great minds
of the faculty at Indian Statistical Institutes and Indian Institute
of Science. International Scholars visiting India is nothing new,
only now, these are virtual visits to contemporary "Virtual
Nalanda University".
Higher Order Information Processing
Content based information processing and retrieval will be the
norm. Face recognition and voice recognition will be used to secure
property and resource. No more keys and locks. When you approach
the door the sensor will open the door if you are expected and
authorized. Automated Teller Machines will sense who you are --by
your looks and voice-- dispense money at your asking.
Miniaturization [8]
Nano-technology will be pervasive. Pocket size computers will
replace desktops we know. Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS
-- ultra-small robots) will help us fight deadly disease. These
drugs programmed to find and neutralize offending virus/cancerous
cells will become available. For example a nanosyringe that fits
through a cell wall will deliver drugs and other treatments [12].
Wireless Circuits [9]
Lent and Porod of Notre Dame have proposed a wireless scheme to
carry signal over a distance --but without moving electrons--.
Electric current will not be required as per this scheme and information
exchange will be accomplished by sub-atomic/molecular electron
rearrangement.
Intelligent Highway System
As we speak there are smart high way patrol systems in the USA
that monitor and update subscribers. CMU has fabricated a self-driven
vehicle that successfully traveled across the continental USA
using vision equipment and on board computers.
Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
In the next 5 years numerous tracking and navigational aids will
be deployed using the recently deployed GPS . Civilians may use
this to navigate within large cities. Track stolen automobiles
and children. Popular Science [12] reports the use of GPS to avoid
mines in Bosnia by the US Army.
Collaborative Computing
Group of people will be able to interact and compute as a team.
Devices that cater to an individual will be replaced by devices
that allow group of people to work together.
Smart Drugs [6]
As our understanding of the brain and intelligence increases drugs
to develop and increase our mental performance will become available.
Memory improvement and increased thinking abilities are some target
capabilities. Over 140 types of smart pills are being developed
by the American pharmaceutical industry.
Artificial Body Parts [10]
Popular Science [10] reports that "hemoglobin solutions"
are now being tested and may be used as a blood substitute. While
hearing-aids, artificial limbs and pace makers have been known
for years, IEEE Spectrum [11] reports on the tremendous progress
made toward artificial eye.
Conclusion
If the recent astronomical increase in real estate prices in --good
old nostalgic-- Bombay and Bangalore are any indication, one cannot
but reminisce history lessons. The entire world thronged to India
for various reasons ever since the ancient Mauryan Empire. Is
India at crossroads again? It is then particularly important to
understand current limitations and to contemplate outside of our
current belief system. Even "chance" favors the
prepared mind, Louis Pasteur once said. So it is important for
us to think about what lies ahead. Those who are established and
in charge must encourage and support those who are beginning.
Those who are beginning must accept responsibility and must not
assume that those in charge are responsible to alter the course.
While there are limits to individual technologies let us not forget
that there are no limits in our dream or in our ability to be
creative and imaginative. No less than Einstein observed that
being able to imagine is the most powerful asset we posses.
Acknowledgments
Author is indebted to Professor and IEEE Fellow L. M. Patnaik
and CSI 96 Committee for extending this opportunity. It is indeed
a great honor to share what I have learned. Furthermore these
ideas and opinions are obviously not mine but the result of countless
other authors acknowledged in the references.
References
1. Alvin Teffler, "The Third Wave", Bantam Books, New
York, 1981.
2. Richard Foster, "Innovation:The Attacker's Advantage",
SUMMIT Books, New York, 1986.
3. Charles Handy, "The Age of Paradox", Harvard Business
School Press, 1995.
4. CACM Vol. 32 10, 1202, 1989.
5. Joel Arthur Barker, "Paradigms: The Business of Discovering
the Future", Harper Collins Publishers Inc. New York, 1992
6. Barry H. Minkin, "Future in Sight", Macmillan, New
York, 1995.
7. Machines Like Us, "ABC Nightline - Friday August 24, 1996",
ABC News.
8. URL: http://www.cs.unc.edu/nano/etc/www/nanopage.html. University
of North Carolina, "The Nanomanipulator".
9. Lent, C. S., Tougaw, P.D., Porod, W., and Bernstein, G. H.,
"Quantum Cellular Automata," Nanotechnology, Vol. 4,
p. 49, 1993.
10. Artificial Blood, Popular Science, 18, September 1996.
11. Special Report: Bioelectronic vision, IEEE Spectrum, May 1996.
12. Timely Warning, Popular Science, 42-43, July 1996.